Digitization: please wait

Last week, the government took a decision that forced PTS to cancel the planned auction in the 700MHz band. Many have noted that the decision will have negative consequences for the digitalization of Sweden. But how much of a delay in the expansion of mobile broadband and digitization in rural and sparsely populated areas does the decision mean in practice?

In an interview with P4 Jämtland the other day, Minister for Digitization Peter Eriksson wanted to play down how serious the delay will be, and said that it is only a matter of "a few months or a year maybe". Unfortunately, the calculations I have access to show that it is much more than that. Realistically, it will take at least three years before we can be back to where we were last week, i.e. in the starting blocks of a spectrum auction.

This is what it looks like:

First, MSB will investigate a future blue light network for one year (until November 1, 2017) . Then, an important and balanced political decision on how to allocate frequencies will be taken. I would be very surprised if this was done in less than six months. This means that we are at the spring/summer of 2018 when PTS can, depending on the political decision, start setting up for a new auction. According to the authority, this process normally takes one and a half years, which Jonas Wessel, head of the Spectrum Department at PTS, made clear when he was interviewed by P4 Jämtland last week .

By the end of 2019 - after a total of about three years - it would be realistic to hold a spectrum auction. And only then, when mobile operators know what spectrum they have to use, can planning for the actual rollout begin.

I do not think that those who expected the frequencies in the 700 MHz band to contribute to better mobile broadband and mobile coverage in rural and sparsely populated areas and to digitize Sweden before 2020 think that the delay is less serious. They have every reason to be disappointed with the government today.