Slowing growth but still positive outlook for the tech industry
Almega's economic report, the services indicator, which gives an indication of where economic activity in the private services sector is heading in the short term, has been published. The report shows that growth in the services sector is expected to be negative this spring. The decline is most pronounced in business services, which are closely linked to industry and construction.
In the chart below (found on page 10 of the report), growth in the information and communication industries was close to zero in the fourth quarter of 2022[1].
In 2022, growth in the industry has slowed down significantly. In the full year 2022, output in the industry was 4.6% higher than in the full year 2021, but most of the growth came at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter of 2022, output in real terms was 0.3% higher than in the same quarter of 2021, the lowest growth rate in the sector since 2012.
The low growth in the sector in the fourth quarter is mainly explained by a 9.6% year-on-year decline in telecommunications output.
However, in the full year 2022, exports of telecommunication, computer and information services were 9.2% higher, in current prices, than in the full year 2021.
- Expectations for the future are still optimistic. This is shown in the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise's Entrepreneurial Panel, which has been broken down into the tech industry. "A majority of companies in the tech industry believe in an increase in future sales volumes and also a need for staff increases next year," says Christina Ramm-Ericson.
[1] Information and communication (J) includes the telecommunications (J61) and computer consultancy and software services (J62-J63) industries that are part of the tech sector, but excludes some industry sub-sectors that are usually included in the tech sector.
About the services indicator
The services indicator has been produced by Almega since 2001 to give an indication of where economic activity in the private services sector is heading in the short term. The indicator provides information for early prediction of turning points in the business cycle, both in the service sector and in the Swedish economy as a whole, as the private service sector accounts for more than half of Sweden's total production, GDP.